Map vs Territory for Net Zero

In Band of Brothers there is a great scene where the incompetent Captain Herbert Sobel played by David Schwimmer is leading his platoon in training manoeuvres in Aldbourne, England. While trying to decipher a map he comes across a fence which he is not expecting. Assuming it is a mistake he inadvertently cuts the fence releasing a group of cows which leads to his platoon being reprimanded for the cattle “taking over” the Battalion HQ. Even with a map it can be difficult to navigate the territory, sometimes the map is not the territory. 

In the energy and net zero carbon emissions world there have been several different roadmaps or strategies as to how to eliminate greenhouse emissions by 2050. The most notable and the most recent has been IEA “Net Zero by 2050- A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”. It has brought much needed attention to the sector and set out a means to achieve net zero in a given time frame. I believe that publishing the word “map” in a title gives the reader the impression that the goal is imminently achievable- just follow it and reach your destination, but can it be done?

For the challenges there are several. Firstly, there is an onus on behavioural changes to meet the targets. While the headlines around the IEA report focused on the spending that would be required to meet Net Zero and the engineering challenges that would have to surmounted 4% of carbon savings are around behavioural changes. Changes around limiting motorway speeds and phasing out of internal domestic air travel are suggested.  

To achieve this saving of 4% of emissions requires a totally different skillset from the build out of renewables and new technologies which will have to carry out the majority of the heavy lifting. This requires behavioural changes. But what makes sense on a spreadsheet can be more difficult to implement in reality. This is a societal issue that requires societal means to solve it. Rory Sutherland in his book Alchemy highlights “the problem with logic is that it kills off magic” and “the human mind does not run on logic any more than a horse runs on petrol”. Increased petrol use wont help the IEA cause, but we have to engage with people and their communities effectively if this road map is to be achieved. The engagement has to filter up to the international level as the plan hinges on international cooperation also. With so many countries dependent on revenues from the production of fossil fuels they have to be facilitated in this new world.

The second major challenge is on the technology front. The roadmap is out to 2050, but post 2030 an increasing proportion of the CO2 savings are via technologies under development. The report highlights that R&D spends will have to increase from a current budget of $25 billion to $90 billion to hit that target. That spending has to happen now in order to meet the targets in 2050. 

But the map should not be discounted because it shines a light on a difficult issue, but rather embraced because of it. It highlights the challenges but also gives cause for optimism, especially in the period from 2021 to 2030. Whereas in the longer term we are awaiting technology break throughs, in the short term we have the technology. Renewables and storage are currently sufficiently advanced and cost effective now. 

By 2050 electricity could comprise of 50% of our total final energy needs. A look at onshore wind in Europe shows the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) at $55/MWh in 2020 and falling to $45/MWh by 2030. A Gas CCGT has an LCOE of $70 to $125/MWh in the same period.

The technology is there. It just needs the right environment for it to grow. In a separate report by the World Resource Institute, in collaboration with Orsted “Unlocking a Renewable Energy Future: How Government Action Can Drive Private Investment” it sets out broadly five key solutions to help in the decarbonisation of our energy system. 

• Firstly, set out key targets as to what you want to achieve. 

• Secondly, develop the market structures to manage risk for investors. 

• Thirdly, develop the planning and permitting system to align with your targets. 

• Fourthly, address the communities concerns on the changes. 

• And finally, invest in the electrical grid. 

In Ireland we have committed to our targets, and there have been positive moves in the other areas but there is a lot of work if the goals are to be achieved in terms of planning, permitting and market structures. In the Wind Energy Ireland report “Our Climate Neutral Future-Zero by 50” it highlights that to achieve our goals we have to enter the “age of electrification” where our electricity demand could increase from 29 GWh to be between 84-125GWh by 2050. For the next decade the technology is there. It just needs the right environment to grow. 

In Band of Brothers Easy Company eventually comes under the leadership of Major Richard Winters. He had the skill and nous to lead his group of men from the perilous Normandy landings, across Europe to the successful conclusion of the war. This was a leader who could look at the map and see the territory. He could see the better world that lay ahead. A person who could cajole and influence, be firm and sympathetic. Always with the end goal in mind. In a world where Net Zero becomes more imperative on a daily basis, where Roadmaps are published and critiqued, this type of leadership is needed now more than ever.